人民黄河2018，Vol.40Issue(4)：60-64,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2018.04.014
气候变化条件下山东省未来水资源情势预估
Prediction of Water Resources Situation in Shandong Province Under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Based on the observed precipitation and datasets from water resources bulletin,the water resources situation in Shandong Province were analyzed and predicted by using wavelet analysis method and mathematical methods of statistics. The results show that the precipitation in Shandong Province will experience a dry period from now to year 2030. Influenced by reduced precipitation and increase extreme precipita-tion intensity,the local water resources quantity will decrease and the exploiting of water resources will be more difficult.The situation will be aggravated by the increasing vulnerability,imperfect storage projects and high water price cost,of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project which is mainly affected by the decreased stream flow of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River.At present,there is still a large potential for the development and utilization of unconventional water resources in Shandong Province. Meanwhile,the government needs to establish water saving society,improve and perfect the modern water network engineering and enhance the storage capacity of water conservancy projects.关键词
气候变化/水资源/情势预估/山东省Key words
climate change/water resources/situation prediction/Shandong Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘健,夏军,王明森,佘敦先..气候变化条件下山东省未来水资源情势预估[J].人民黄河,2018,40(4):60-64,5.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(ZR2015EQ004) （ZR2015EQ004）
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(41501053,41501030). （41501053,41501030）
