水利学报2018，Vol.49Issue(2)：263-270,8.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170683
青狮潭水库降水集合预报模式构建及应用
Construction and application of precipitation ensemble forecast model for Qingshitan Reservoir
摘要
Abstract
The numerical ensemble forecast of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty caused by single value forecasting,and it is a hot topic both at home and abroad.But most of the researches at present treat the forecast skills of set members equally,and obtain the final forecast conclusion with the average value of the collective arithmetic extensively,so this kind of method can hardly effectively show the differences among the forecast skills of different parameterization schemes.Aimed at this problem,the Qingshitan Reservoir located at the rainstorm center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was selected in this paper as the research area and a comprehensive quantitative evaluation model based on the ETS grading was built,through sensitivity analysis on the WRF model and the 21 groups of parameterization schemes and the quantitative analysis for the number of samples and ensemble forecast skills,the establishment of ensemble forecast scheme of rainfall in Qingshitan Reservoir was realized based on the ETS evaluation results.Through verification,compared with the collective arithmetic average forecast,the ensemble forecast scheme constructed in this paper has higher skills and a more stable performance.关键词
青狮潭水库/集合预报/WRF模式/参数化方案扰动Key words
Qingshitan reservoir/ensemble forecast/WRF model/parameterization scheme disturbance分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨明祥,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,王浩,何素明..青狮潭水库降水集合预报模式构建及应用[J].水利学报,2018,49(2):263-270,8.基金项目
桂林市防洪及漓江补水水库群生态调度技术研究(GXZC2016-G3-2344-JHZJ,桂科 AB16380313) （GXZC2016-G3-2344-JHZJ,桂科 AB16380313）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51709271) （51709271）
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(WR0145B212017) （WR0145B212017）
