水文地质工程地质2018，Vol.45Issue(2)：142-149,8.DOI:10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.2018.02.22
基于子流域特征的泥石流易发性评价
Debris-flow susceptibility assessment using the characteristic factors of a catchment
摘要
Abstract
In traditional application of GIS,the susceptibility mapping based on distinct grids usually neglect the organic unity of the natural element.For this reason,this article investigates the susceptibility model based on catchments,using the valleys of the Jinsha River between Jinjiang and Lindangke as a working example.Firstly,the study area is divided into 1 570 catchments,in which 70％ (1 090 catchments) are used to build the susceptibility model and 30％ (480 catchments) are used as validation samples.Secondly,9 feature factors,including the melton ratio,average stream power index of catchment,average topographic wetness index of catchment,catchment elongation,average height of catchment,drainage density of catchment,average fractional vegetation cover of catchment,average slope of catchment and catchment relief ratio are normalized and then selected as independent variables.Whether debris-flows occur is the dependent variable.Susceptibility assessment models of debris-flow are then built using the logistic regression and are classified into five degrees.Finally,the model can predict well (AUC =0.821) through the test of independent validation samples.Moreover,both the absolute and relative incidence of debris-flows increase with the susceptibility degree.关键词
泥石流/易发性评价/逻辑回归模型/子流域特征/金沙江河谷Key words
debris-flow/susceptibility assessment/logistic regression model/characteristic factors of catchments/valley of the Jinsha River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张书豪,吴光,张乔,高飞..基于子流域特征的泥石流易发性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2018,45(2):142-149,8.基金项目
中国铁路总公司科技开发计划(结合工程的科研项目)(总公司合同编号:2010G004-Ⅰ （结合工程的科研项目）
分合同编号:滇西指LX2016-1号-1) （）
