石油钻采工艺2018，Vol.40Issue(1)：14-19,6.DOI:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.01.003
基于蒙特卡洛法的井壁稳定可靠度随机变量敏感性分析
Sensitivity analysis on the random variables of borehole stability reliability based on Monte-Carlo method
摘要
Abstract
The relationships between random variables and results of borehole stability model were analyzed by means of Mon-te-Carlo simulation to figure out the most sensitive factors affecting borehole stability under different stresses and failure criteria. It is indicated that based on the collapse pressure of Mohr-Coulomb criteria, the most sensitive factor in any ground stress field is always the maximum horizontal ground stress. Based on the collapse pressure of Drucker-Prager criteria, the most sensitive factor is pore pressure when the vertical stress is the maximum major stress, and it is the internal friction angle when the vertical stress is the medium or the min-imum major stress. The most sensitive factor of formation fracture pressure in any ground stress field is always the minimum horizontal stress. After the most sensitive factors affecting the reliability of borehole stability were defined, the accuracy degree of sensitive factors was improved by taking the measures correspondingly, so that the uncertainty of predicted collapse and fracture pressures is decreased and the reliability of borehole stability is ultimately improved.关键词
井壁稳定性/不确定性分析/Monte-Carlo模拟/敏感性分析Key words
borehole stability/uncertainty analysis/Monte-Carlo simulation/sensitivity analysis分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
胜亚楠,管志川,罗鸣,李文拓,巨然..基于蒙特卡洛法的井壁稳定可靠度随机变量敏感性分析[J].石油钻采工艺,2018,40(1):14-19,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"隔水管内气液两相流声传播特性与深水钻井气侵监测方法"(编号:51574275) （编号:51574275）
"十三五"中国海洋石油总公司科技重大项目"莺琼盆地高温高压钻井关键技术研究"(编号:CNOOC-KJ 135 ZDXM 24 LTD ZJ 01). （编号:CNOOC-KJ 135 ZDXM 24 LTD ZJ 01）
