同济大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.46Issue(2)：208-214,7.DOI:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.02.010
考虑货车因素的高速公路短期交通流风险预测
Short-term Traffic Flow Risk Prediction on Freeways Based on Truck Factors
摘要
Abstract
Based on the traffic data and crash data collected on G15,a study was made of the short-term traffic flow risk prediction model on freeways with high proportion of trucks and high proportion of truck crashes.The overall traffic flow parameters,the truck traffic flow parameters and the comprehensive parameters were selected as the risk characteristic variables.The support vector machine was adopted for the modeling and genetic algorithm was used to optimize the parameters.Classification models of different time periods,different risk characteristic variables were got and compared.The results show that the model using the data within 5 to 10 minutes before the accident performs the best.When considering truck factors,the overall prediction accuracy improves 7.1％,the crash rate prediction accuracy improves 6.1％ and the false alarm rate is 4.7％ lower.Finally,the different importance of characteristic variables was obtained through mean impact value.The results show that truck factors have larger effects on the prediction model.The model in this research can be used to develop early warning system of traffic security and provide theoretical basis of truck safety management on freeways.关键词
高速公路/交通安全/货车因素/支持向量机/风险预测模型Key words
freeway/traffic safety/truck factors/support vector machine/risk prediction model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
张兰芳,赵焜..考虑货车因素的高速公路短期交通流风险预测[J].同济大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,46(2):208-214,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71671126) （71671126）
