天津农业科学2018，Vol.24Issue(4)：71-74,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2018.04.017
乌恰县流域生态系统健康评价与预测分析
Ecosystem Health Assessment and Prediction Analysis of Wuqia County Watershed
摘要
Abstract
In order to facilitate the management and planning of the ecological environment in Wuqia County, the index system of e-cosystem assessment for the regional watershed was established through the PSR model of ecosystem health assessment, the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the index value and its weight, and the gray prediction model was used to forecast the e-cosystem health of Wuqia County. The comprehensive evaluation results showed that the health status of the ecosystem of Wuqia County from 2008 to 2015 was 'deteriorating'gradually,and it degraded to 0.176 in 2014,reaching the 'sick'state.According to the gray prediction model, the ecological forecast of the basin in near 5 years in the future will decrease to 0.306, 0.289, 0.273, 0.258,0.244 respectively;the river basin ecosystem will be in an unhealthy state and have a tendency to develop morbidly.The threat will be more and more serious,the regional watershed ecosystem needs for protection and management.The research provided the ba-sis for coordinating the relationship between regional development and ecological environment.关键词
生态系统健康/评价/流域/乌恰县Key words
ecosystem health/assessment/basin/Wuqia County分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
叶佳琦,李政海,张靖,鲍雅静,刘翀,徐媛,崔立新..乌恰县流域生态系统健康评价与预测分析[J].天津农业科学,2018,24(4):71-74,4.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DC201501070201 （）
DC201502070303 （）
DC201501070403) （）
