水资源与水工程学报2018，Vol.29Issue(1)：25-30,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.01.04
GLUE框架下似然函数对水文模型不确定性的影响
Effect assessment of different likelihood functions on parameter uncertainty of hydrological model under the GLUE framework
摘要
Abstract
The selection of likelihood function has great influence on the uncertainty of model parameters.In this study,taking the control basin of Dapoling Hydrological Station upstream of Huaihe River as an example,the GLUE method was combined with the integrated water system model (HEQM) and the optimization algorithm SCE-UA to analyze the influence of different likelihood functions (i.e.,Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and water balance coefficient) on the model parameter sensitivity,value distribution and uncertainty.The results showed that:From the sensitivity analysis,when the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is taken as the likelihood function,all the nine parameters selected are sensitive parameters,and when the water balance coefficient is a likelihood function,there is only one sensitivity parameter.The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is more suitable as a likelihood function;Seeing from the evaluation results of uncertainty interval,water balance coefficient was more suitable as a likelihood function,because its coverage and symmetry were better than those of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient.This study was expected to not only provide some references for selecting likelihood function in GLUE method,but also to give the theoretical basis for weight assignment of the multi-objective GLUE method.关键词
不确定性/GLUE方法/参数敏感性/预测区间/似然函数/水文模型Key words
parameter uncertainty/GLUE method/parameter sensitivity/prediction bounds/likelihood function/hydrological model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姜倩妮,李占玲,张永勇..GLUE框架下似然函数对水文模型不确定性的影响[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):25-30,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400902) （2016YFC0400902）
国家自然科学基金项目(41671024) （41671024）
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维优秀青年人才计划项目(2015RC201) （2015RC201）
中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2014041) （2014041）
