水资源与水工程学报2018，Vol.29Issue(1)：38-43,49,7.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.01.06
叶尔羌河径流演变规律与变异特征
Evolution and variation of runoff in Yarkant River
摘要
Abstract
Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the process of water cycle with runoff being the main indication and its change is the prerequisite for rational utilization of water resources.It is of great value to understand the hydrological mechanism and to cope with the change of runoff.In the period from 1957 to 2015,the series of monthly runoff series and the temperature and precipitation series from 1962 to 2015 in the Yarkant River fracture surface of inland river flows in arid area were selected.The distribution coefficient Cr,the distribution inequality coefficient Cn,the relative variation range Cm,the concentration ratio Cd,the concentration period D,the interannual runoff average,the maximum flow rate and the time of occurrence,the minimum flow rate and the time of occurrence,the inter-annual extreme value ratio were adopted as indicators using Mann-Kendall method,cumulative anomaly method,R / S method,the entropy method and so on,the evolution law and variation characteristics of the runoff the Yarkant River were revealed and the attribution analysis was carried out.The results showed that in the past 60 years,the annual runoff distribution in the Yarkant River Basin tends to be homogenized during the year,and the interannual variation shows a significant increase tendency and is persistent,among which 1957-1961 and 1993-2015 are the significant runoff increasing periods.Mann-Kendall method and the distribution entropy method all confirmed that the mutation point of the runoff sequence was also the point of variation in 1997.The temperature,especially the average temperature in summer from July to August (correlation coefficient is 0.81) was the main influencing factor of runoff in Yarkant River.关键词
径流演变规律/径流变异/排列熵/影响因素/叶尔羌河Key words
runoff evolution law/runoff variation/permutation entropy/influencing factor/Yarkant River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何兵,高凡,闫正龙,蓝利..叶尔羌河径流演变规律与变异特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):38-43,49,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51409226、51769036) （51409226、51769036）
