水资源与水工程学报2018，Vol.29Issue(1)：236-241,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.01.41
基于可变模糊理论的气象干旱风险评价模型
A model used to evaluate the risk of meteorological drought based on variable fuzzy theory
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the meteorological drought problem,this paper constructs a drought identification system based on the variable fuzzy theory,introduces the pre-precipitation influence coefficient to correct the drought process,analyzes the probability of drought in various degrees based on run-length theory and quantifies the drought loss with the average drought intensity to set up a meteorological drought risk assessment model.Taking the Huaihe river basin as an example,the risk assessment of meteorological drought shows that when the duration of drought is less than three months,the risk of meteorological drought is high in the southwestern and northeastern Huaihe River basins otherwise,the risk comes to the highest in north area of the section between Wangjiaba and Bengbu and'west area of the northwest section of Nansi Lake'.关键词
可变模糊理论/干旱过程修正/游程理论/气象干旱风险/气象干旱风险评价Key words
variable fuzzy theory/drought correction/run-length theory/meteorological drought risk/risk evaluation of metorolgical drought分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
颜敏,方国华,闻昕,晋恬..基于可变模糊理论的气象干旱风险评价模型[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):236-241,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900) （2017YFC0405900）
国家自然科学基金项目(51609061) （51609061）
