空间科学学报2018，Vol.38Issue(2)：178-187,10.DOI:10.11728/cjss2018.02.178
卡尔曼滤波和自相关分析方法短期预报电离层f0F2的比较
Comparison of Short-time Prediction of foF2 Using Kalman Filter and Autocorrelation Method
摘要
Abstract
f0F2 forecast is a significant research aspect in ionospheric study,and much work has been done to improve its prediction performance.In this paper,f0F2 data from four ionospheric observation stations (Beijing,Changchun,Qingdao and Suzhou) in 2011 are used to predict f0F2 one hour in advance with the method of Kalman filter and autocorrelation analysis.Furthermore,comparisons are carried out between ionosonde observation,the values predicted by International Ionospheric Reference Model (IRI),and the estimated values of Kalman filter and autocorrelation method.The results are described as follows.For the method of Kalman filter,its Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Relative Error (RE) are 0.532MHz and 8.11％ respectively.The RMSE and RE values are reduced by 1.035 MHz and 14.58％ compared with the corresponding values obtained by IRI.In terms of autocorrelation analysis,its RMSE and RE are 0.967MHz and 11.46％,and are reduced by 1.035 MHz and 11.23％ compared with the corresponding values obtained by IRI.It can be concluded that the prediction precisions of above-mentioned two methods have a great promotion compared with the IRI results.Moreover,further comparisons of these three methods are carried out during a geomagnetic storm.Experimental results indicate that Kalman filter method is better than autocorrelation analysis method and IRI model,which might provide suggestions for choosing a method for short-term prediction of f0F2.关键词
电离层/f0F2短期预报/卡尔曼滤波/自相关分析Key words
Ionosphere/f0F2 short-term prediction/Kalman filter/Autocorrelation analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周燚,张援农,姜春华,赵正予,刘静..卡尔曼滤波和自相关分析方法短期预报电离层f0F2的比较[J].空间科学学报,2018,38(2):178-187,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41604133),博士后基金项目(2016M592374)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目共同资助 （41604133）
