空间科学学报2018，Vol.38Issue(2)：211-220,10.DOI:10.11728/cjss2018.02.211
时间序列法在临近空间大气风场预报中的应用
Application of Time Series Method in Forecasting Near-space Atmospheric Wind
摘要
Abstract
Due to many factors,near-space environment is complex and variable.Atmospheric environmental elements are hard to be forecasted.In this paper time series method is applied to the near-space wind forecasting.Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is adopted.The zonal wind data at 88 km altitude of Langfang (39.4°N,116.7°W) MF radar form September 24 to October 24,2015 is used for the forecasting test.In this test the data of past 7 days was used to forecast the data of the 8th day.Results suggest that ARMA model has certain applicability in forecasting the near-space atmospheric wind.The forecast effect is better when the winds have stronger regularity of change,i.e.,when the sample data show a significant 24-hour cycle,the forecast effect is better,and is worse when the winds have a mutation.Compared with the observed data,results show that the forecast error of ARMA model is 9～27 m.s-1,and the forecast result of ARMA model is better than that of AR model with the same order,and is slightly better than that of higher-order AR model.关键词
临近空间/大气风场/时间序列法/ARMA模型/预报Key words
Near space/Atmospheric wind/Time series method/ARMA model/Forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘涛,肖存英,胡雄,涂翠,杨钧烽,徐轻尘..时间序列法在临近空间大气风场预报中的应用[J].空间科学学报,2018,38(2):211-220,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFB0501503) （2016YFB0501503）
