水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(8)：13-17,106,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.08.003
汉江干支流径流丰枯遭遇对跨流域调水的影响
Influence from wetness-dryness encounter of runoffs from tributaries and main stream of Hanjiang River on interbasin water transfer
摘要
Abstract
Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project is one of the important measures to alleviate the water shortage in Guanzhong Area and improve the ecology of Weihe River.Aiming at the huge influence from the law of the wetness-dryness encounter of runoffs from tributaries and main stream of Hanjiang River on the water transfer through Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project and taking ensuring the water supply from the project as the study target,a model for the maximum transferable water amount in the water source area is established,and then the probability of the maximum influence from the combination of the wetness-dryness encounter on the interbasin water transfer is determined with Copula function,the typical years under different combinations of the wetness-dryness encounter is defined according to the analysis on the measured runoffs and the influences from different combinations of the wetness-dryness encounter on the water transfers in all the typical years are analyzed through the long series calculations with the self-iterative simulation-optimization algorithm.The result shows that within the long series (1954-2009) calculation of 56 years,the water supply guarantee rate is 95％,in which the water transferred amounts of 8 years are over 1.6 billion m3 with the maximum of 1.774 billion m3 in 1975 and the minimum of 941 million m3 in 2002.Under the conditions of different combinations of wetness-dryness encounter of runoffs from the tributaries and the main stream of Hanjiang River,the probability of the simultaneous dryness for both the tributaries and the main stream is 20.79％,which is the minimum value of the reservoir transferred water amount,thus the influence from this combination on the interbasin water transfer from Hanjiang River to Weihe River is most significant,which is the most unfavorable condition and to be paid great attention to as well.The study result has certain reference and supplication values for both the operations of the reservoirs in the water source area and the water resources allocation in the water-receiving area of Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project.关键词
Copula函数/丰枯遭遇概率/典型年/调水量/引汉济渭工程Key words
Copula function/wetness-dryness encounter probability/typical year/transferred water amount/Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
马盼盼,白涛,武连洲,黄强..汉江干支流径流丰枯遭遇对跨流域调水的影响[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(8):13-17,106,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51409210,51190093,91325201) （51409210,51190093,91325201）
水利公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201501058) （201501058）
陕西省水利科技计划项目(2016-slkj8) （2016-slkj8）
