水资源保护2018，Vol.34Issue(2)：52-60,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2018.02.09
疏勒河年径流量变化特征分析及模拟
Analysis and simulation on annual runoff variation characteristics of Shule River
摘要
Abstract
Based on the measured data of annual runoff from 1972 to 2011,the annual runoff variation characteristics of 4 catchments in Shule River were analyzed by inclination trend analysis and Mann-Kendall catastrophe trend test,and the BP neural network and particle swarm optimization-neural network were used to simulate the annual runoff prediction.The results indicated that the annual runoff of Changmabao,Dangchengwan,Shuangtapu,and Panjiazhuang are increasing,the slope of annual runoff cumulative anomaly percentage is respectively 13.87％,4.46％,11.57％,10.49％ per decade,the annual runoff frequency occur break in the 2004,1983,2008 and 2010,respectively.The 25-year scale period is the main control period of the annual runoff in the Shule River Basin.The particle swarm-neural network is more accurate than the Bp neural network during annual runoff simulation.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation will increase from 15％ to 25％ on the basis of 40 years mean value,and the runoff will not change significantly.关键词
年径流量/变化特征/模拟预测/疏勒河Key words
annual runoff/variation characteristics/simulation and prediction/Shule River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李培都,司建华,冯起,赵春彦,王春林..疏勒河年径流量变化特征分析及模拟[J].水资源保护,2018,34(2):52-60,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400908) （2016YFC0400908）
