甘蔗糖业Issue(2)：19-26,8.
2016/17年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2017/18年榨季展望
Domestic Sugar Consumption Situation Analysis in 2016/17 Crushing Season and Its Prospect in 2017/18 Crushing Season
摘要
Abstract
In 2016/17 crushing season, driven by the expectations of implementing import safeguard measures, both futures and spot prices of China's sugar remain high and volatile. High sugar prices inhibited some end-use consumption. However, how to build an effective estimation model of sugar consumption is particularly important in the context of increasing uncertainties such as smuggling into the country and launch of reserves. By using macroeconomic data, sub-industry data of the food industry, and the industry's monthly supply and demand balance model, this paper reviews and analyzes the sugar consumption situation in China in 2016/17 crushing season. It shows the prominent features of "stable total volume, declining growth rate, and structural changes". Assuming that the current consumption characteristics will continue, the paper further analyzes the outlook of the consumption characteristics of the industry in 2017/18 crushing season. Analysis of the macro economy, status of sub industry in food manufacturing industry, and circulation structure consistently shows that sugar consumption will maintain a slight increase in 2017/18 crushing season.关键词
食糖消费/食品工业/月度平衡关系/甜味剂替代/消费预测Key words
Sugar consumption/Food industry/Monthly equilibrium/Sweetener replacement/Consumption forecast分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘晓雪,王新超..2016/17年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2017/18年榨季展望[J].甘蔗糖业,2018,(2):19-26,8.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601) （糖料）
教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097) （13YJC790097）
国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究" （）
