华南地震2017，Vol.37Issue(4)：26-31,6.DOI:10.13512/j.hndz.2017.04.005
全球大于或等于8.5级特大巨震的周期性分析
The Periodicity Analysis of the Great Earthquakes with MS≥8.5
徐清华 1杨林根2
作者信息
- 1. 淮北市人民防空和防震办公室,安徽 淮北235000
- 2. 巢湖市地震办,安徽 巢湖238000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation method are used to predict the periodicity of the world great earthquakes with MS≥8.5 since 1897. And through theoretical calculation, the paper tries to put forward the time period that next MS≥8.5 great earthquake may occur.The article also analyzes the possible errors and their roots in the statistical analysis, but the significance of this method is to apply the statistical theory analysis to the quantification of time prediction, which has a positive significance to determine the key monitoring period in a certain sense. In addition, 8 quasi periodic values are put forward through the analysis, which provide the reference for the research of seismogenic mechanism, the external environment and evolvement rule of huge earthquakes occurrence.关键词
8.5级/特大巨震/方差分析/外推法/地震预测Key words
The great earthquakes with MS≥8.5/Variance analysis/Extrapolation method/Earthquake prediction.分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐清华,杨林根..全球大于或等于8.5级特大巨震的周期性分析[J].华南地震,2017,37(4):26-31,6.
