经济与管理研究2018，Vol.39Issue(5)：69-77,9.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.05.007
基于改进型学习曲线理论的风电产业学习率估计
Estimating the Learning Rate of Wind Power Industry Based on the Modified Learning Curve Theory
摘要
Abstract
This paper,based on the learning curve theory,builds a modified learning model of wind power which considers accumulative installed capacity,R&D investment and returns-to-scale.Constructing a series of different scenarios designed by three indefinite parameters and using multiple regression analysis,this paper is aimed at estimating the technology learning rate in the wind power industry in China.The results reveal that:the unit cost decreases by 13.76%every time the accumulative installed capacity is doubled,and by 10.77% every time the knowledge stock is doubled;the coefficient of returns-to-scale is positive,which means there is a decreasing returns-to-scale in the wind power industry;the effect of R&D investment on wind power technology was taken after around one year,the depreciation rate of knowledge stock was around 9%,and predicted decreased minimum unit cost is 0.6 Yuan/W.These conclusions would help reveal the technology learning status of the wind power industry in China and offer suggestions on R&D management.关键词
风电产业/技术学习率/学习曲线/情景分析Key words
wind power industry/technology learning rate/learning curve/scenario analysis分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
迟春洁,麻易帆..基于改进型学习曲线理论的风电产业学习率估计[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(5):69-77,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"不确定技术学习及系统空间重构下的技术采纳优化"(71571069) （71571069）
华东理工大学基本科研业务费专项基金"计算实验金融方法的研究与应用"(222201718006) （222201718006）
