电波科学学报2017，Vol.32Issue(6)：725-734,10.DOI:10.13443/j.cjors.2017072001
基于MM5V3的大气波导预报可靠性和准确度分析
Reliability and accuracy to atmospheric duct prediction based on MM5V3
摘要
Abstract
The effectiveness of using MM5V3 numerical weather model to forecast atmospheric duct was tested by radiosonde data from GTS and final operational analysis(FNL) data in three regions:focused regions of East China Sea,focused regions of South China Sea,and focused regions of Gulf of Aden from two aspects of reliability and accuracy to analyse,we obtain the following results.First,for the weaker surface and elevated duct(SED),the reliability of prediction is 60％ to 80％,and the reliability of stronger SED,is more than 80％;root mean square error(RMSE) of prediction for duct top height and strength are 500-800 m and 10-20 M respectively.Second,FNL data of four days are used to test the reliability and accuracy of evaporation duct(ED) prediction in high incidence area.The results show that the reliability of prediction is more than 90％ and RMSE of top height prediction is 2-3 m.Generally,reliability of weaker SED prediction is low and it is higher for that of stronger SED.The accuracy of prediction for both SED top height and strength are very low.For ED in high incidence area,MM5V3 own the ability to predict it.The above results provide a reference for the prediction of the effectiveness of the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model for the prediction of atmospheric waveguides,which is of practical significance.关键词
大气波导/中尺度数值天气预报模式/GTS/FNL/可靠性/准确度Key words
atmospheric duct/mesoscale numerical weather model/GTS/FNL/reliability/accuracy分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
郝晓静,李清亮,郭立新,韩杰,郭相明..基于MM5V3的大气波导预报可靠性和准确度分析[J].电波科学学报,2017,32(6):725-734,10.基金项目
电波环境特性及模化技术重点实验室专项资金(201600002) （201600002）
