湖泊科学2018，Vol.30Issue(2)：533-541,9.DOI:10.18307/2018.0224
基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法
Real-time flood forecast updating method based on mean areal rainfall error correction
摘要
Abstract
The accuracy of flood forecasts generated using spatially lumped hydrological models can be severely affected by errors in the estimates of mean areal rainfall.The quality of the latter depends both on the size and type of errors in point-based rainfall measurements,and on the density and spatial arrangement of rain gauges in the basin.Here,we use error feedback correction,based on the rainfall system response curve method,to compute updated estimates of the rainfall inputs.The capability of the method to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasts is demonstrated using the Xin'anjiang (XAJ) model applied to 16 flood events of the Wangjiaba Basin.The result shows that the forecast improvement is significant.For the Wangjiaba Basin,we also examinethe performance of the method for different rain gauge densities,and find that forecast improvement is more significant when gauge densities are lower.The method is relatively simple to apply and can improve the accuracy of real-time model predictions without increasing either model complexity and/or the number of model parameters.关键词
实时修正/面平均雨量误差/降雨系统响应曲线/新安江模型/王家坝流域Key words
Real-time updating/mean areal rainfall error/system response curve/Xin'anjiang model/Wangjiaba Basin引用本文复制引用
司伟,包为民,瞿思敏,石朋..基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):533-541,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51709077)和博士后基金项目(2017M611679/1701019A)联合资助. （51709077）
