水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(3)：7-16,10.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.03.002
1961-2016年中国冰雹日数时空演变特征
Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of hail days from 1961 to 2016 in China
摘要
Abstract
In accordance with the data of hail days from 2 481 stations,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and periodic variation law of the hail days in China and within its seven geographical regions are analyzed herein with several statistical methods.The result shows that the hail days from 1962-2016 all over China and within its various regions integratedly present decreasing trends,for which the region of Tibet (the southeast) is obviously higher (lower) than those of the other six regions and the national average.The oscillation cycles of the annual average hail days all over China and within the seven geographical regions on the scales less than five years and 30 ～ 60 years are relatively significant,and that the mutations of hail days occur in most of them from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s.The hail days in those hail-prone areas in China are relatively stable,which is more within the western region and less within the eastern region,more within the region with complicated surface and less within the region with single surface,more within the plateau and mountainous region and less within plain region,more within the region with windward slope and less within the region with leeward slope in the aspect of the distribution.Moreover,2000s and 2010s are the decades with more hail days in China,while 1960s and 1990s are the decades with less hail days.During 1961-2016,the regions with the increasing trend of hail days are less distributed in China,while the regions with the decreasing trend are mainly concentrated in the areas of Tibet,the South and Northeast Hainan,the West Sichuan,the Northwest Xinjiang,the Mid-Inner Mongolia and its adjacent the North Hebei,the Northeast Inner Mongolia,the Mid-Heilongjiang and the East Jiiin.The fluctuation of the annual average hail days in China presents the distributioncharacteristics of "higher on both the ends and lower in the middle" from the Southeast Coast to the Northwest Inland.The regions with larger fluctuation are mainly distributed in the areas of the East China,the South China,the Central-China,Chongqing,the East Sichuan,the South Shaanxi,the West Inner Mongolia,the East Xinjiang and its adjacent region of Gansu,the South Xinjiang and its adjacent region of Tibet.关键词
冰雹日数/区域分异/变化趋势/波动特征/集合经验模态分解/MK突变检验Key words
hail days/regional differentiation/variation trend/fluctuation characteristics/ensemble empirical mode decomposition/Mann-Kendall test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孔锋,王一飞,吕丽莉,林霖,刘冬,辛源..1961-2016年中国冰雹日数时空演变特征[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(3):7-16,10.基金项目
中亚大气科学研究基金“中亚地区暴雨时空变化及其影响因素诊断(CAAS201804) （CAAS201804）
国家自然科学基金项目“北京城市热岛效应与强降水事件的关系研究”(41775078) （41775078）
中国气象局气象软科学自主项目“一带一路”综合气象灾害风险评估及其战略对策研究(2018[23]) （2018[23]）
