水利学报2018，Vol.49Issue(3)：323-331,9.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170848
基于高维Gaussian Copula函数的区域农田灌溉需水分析
Analysis of regional irrigation water demand based on high-dimensional Gaussian Copula function
摘要
Abstract
In order to investigate irrigation water demand in Guangdong province,South China,as a study case,an eight-dimensional joint distribution of sub-regional precipitations was built.For given frequencies of precipitation of the entire province,the calculation procedures of irrigation water demand of the entire province and its sub-regions were proposed.Frequency combinations of sub-regional precipitation and water demands using three methods,i.e.the equalized frequency,the typical year and the most-likely weight function,were compared.The results demonstrate that the Gaussian copula function efficiently fits the joint distribution of precipitation of eight sub-regions,in which the generalized extreme value distribution and generalized normal distribution are the optimal univariate distribution for individual sub-regions.The differences of water demands of the entire province among the three methods are quite small,but those of individual sub-regions are comparatively large,in particular using the typical year method.The design frequencies of precipitation of individual sub-regions using the most-likely weight function mostly occur near the lines of the equalized frequencies,but those of the Ⅷ sub-region in the extreme dry and extreme wet conditions remarkably are far from the lines in association with a large uncertainty due to a wider confidence interval.The most-likely weight function method on the basis of the high-dimensional Gaussian copula can simulate individual univariate distributions of sub-regional precipitations and capture their dependences,and also present a confidence interval of sub-regional water demands,which is recommended to acquire irrigation water demand for a large-scale region.关键词
灌溉需水/降水频率/高维联合分布/Gaussian Copula函数/典型年法/最大权函数Key words
irrigation water demand/frequency of precipitation/high-dimensional joint distribution/Gaussian Copula function/typical year/most-likely weight function分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
杜奕良,涂新军,杜晓霞,陈晓宏,林凯荣,吴海鸥..基于高维Gaussian Copula函数的区域农田灌溉需水分析[J].水利学报,2018,49(3):323-331,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900) （2017YFC0405900）
国家自然科学基金项目(51479217) （51479217）
