应用生态学报2018，Vol.29Issue(4)：1051-1060,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.009
基于Hurst系数与Bartels统计量的水文变异度及其敏感性
Hydrologic variability and sensitivity based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic
摘要
Abstract
Due to the global climate change and frequent human activities in recent years,the pure stochastic components of hydrological sequence is mixed with one or several of the variation ingredients,including jump,trend,period and dependency.It is urgently needed to clarify which indices should be used to quantify the degree of their variability.In this study,we defined the hydrological variability based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic,and used Monte Carlo statistical tests to test and analyze their sensitivity to different variants.When the hydrological sequence had jump or trend variation,both Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic could reflect the variation,with the Hurst coefficient being more sensitive to weak jump or trend variation.When the sequence had period,only the Bartels statistic could detect the mutation of the sequence.When the sequence had a dependency,both the Hurst coefficient and the Bartels statistics could reflect the variation,with the latter could detect weaker dependent variations.For the four variations,both the Hurst variability and Bartels variability increased with the increases of variation range.Thus,they could be used to measure the variation intensity of the hydrological sequence.We analyzed the temperature series of different weather stations in the Lancang River basin.Results showed that the temperature of all stations showed the upward trend or jump,indicating that the entire basin had experienced warming in recent years and the temperature variability in the upper and lower reaches was much higher.This case study showed the practicability of the proposed method.关键词
Hurst系数/Bartels统计量/变异度/敏感性分析/澜沧江Key words
Hurst coefficient/Bartels statistics/variability/sensitivity analysis/Lancang River引用本文复制引用
雷旭,谢平,吴子怡,桑燕芳,赵江艳,李彬彬..基于Hurst系数与Bartels统计量的水文变异度及其敏感性[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(4):1051-1060,10.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(91547205,91647110,51579181)、湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015]13-21)和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“秉维”优秀青年人才计划项目资助 （91547205,91647110,51579181）
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91547205,91647110,51579181),the Water Engineering and Science Project of Hunan Province (Xiangshuikeji [2015]13-21),and the'Bingwei'Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences. （91547205,91647110,51579181）
