应用生态学报2018，Vol.29Issue(4)：1061-1070,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.016
水文跳跃变异综合加权识别方法——以澜沧江下游戛旧水文站径流序列为例
Comprehensive weighted recognition method for hydrological abrupt change: With the runoff series of Jiajiu hydrological station in Lancang River as an example
摘要
Abstract
Abrupt change is an important manifestation of hydrological process with dramatic variation in the context of global climate change,the accurate recognition of which has great significance to understand hydrological process changes and carry out the actual hydrological and water resources works.The traditional method is not reliable at both ends of the samples.The results of the methods are often inconsistent.In order to solve the problem,we proposed a comprehensive weighted recognition method for hydrological abrupt change based on weighting by comparing of 12 commonly used methods for testing change points.The reliability of the method was verified by Monte Carlo statistical test.The results showed that the efficiency of the 12 methods was influenced by the factors including coefficient of variation (Cv),deviation coefficient (Cs) before the change point,mean value difference coefficient,Cv difference coefficient and Cs difference coefficient,but with no significant relationship with the mean value of the sequence.Based on the performance of each method,the weight of each test method was given following the results from statistical test.The sliding rank sum test method and the sliding run test method had the highest weight,whereas the RS test method had the lowest weight.By this means,the change points with the largest comprehensive weight could be selected as the final result when the results of the different methods were inconsistent.This method was used to analyze the daily maximum sequence of Jiajiu station in the lower reaches of the Lancang River (1-day,3-day,5-day,7-day and 1-month).The results showed that each sequence had obvious jump variation in 2004,which was in agreement with the physical causes of hydrological process change and water conservancy construction.The rationality and reliability of the proposed method was verified.关键词
跳跃变异/水文时间序列/统计试验/澜沧江/气候变化Key words
abrupt change/hydrological time series/statistical experiment/Lancang River/climate change引用本文复制引用
顾海挺,谢平,桑燕芳,吴子怡..水文跳跃变异综合加权识别方法——以澜沧江下游戛旧水文站径流序列为例[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(4):1061-1070,10.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(91547205,91647110,51579181)、湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015] 13-21)和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“秉维”优秀青年人才计划项目资助 （91547205,91647110,51579181）
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91547205,91647110,51579181),the Water Engineering and Science Project of Hunan Province (Xiangshuikeji [2015] 13-21),and the'Bingwei'Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences. （91547205,91647110,51579181）
