应用生态学报2018，Vol.29Issue(4)：1156-1162,7.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.011
山西翅果油树的适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应
Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China
摘要
Abstract
Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function.In this study,the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model,based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition.Moreover,with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E.mollis under different climate scenarios.The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987,indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable.Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E.mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality,the range of annual temperature,annual mean temperature,isothermality,annual precipitation,and pH of topsoil,with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8％.At present,the potential suitable habitats of E.mollis are mainly located in two regions,the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province.Under different climate scenarios,the total suitable area of E.mollis would shrink in 2070s.In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease,while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase.Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change.The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction,while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.关键词
翅果油树/适生分布区/Maxent/气候变化Key words
Elaeagnus mollis/suitable distribution/Maxent/climate change引用本文复制引用
张殷波,高晨虹,秦浩..山西翅果油树的适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(4):1156-1162,7.基金项目
本文由山西省回国留学人员科研项目(2017-022)和山西省自然科学基金项目(2011011031-1)资助 （2017-022）
This work was supported by the Research Project of Returned Oversea Scholar of Shanxi,China (2017-022) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi,China (2011011031-1). （2017-022）
