应用生态学报2018，Vol.29Issue(4)：1302-1312,11.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.019
RCPs气候情景下挠力河流域耕地水土资源平衡效应模拟
Simulation for balanced effect of soil and water resources on cultivated land in Naoli River Basin, Northeast China under the RCPs climate scene
摘要
Abstract
Under the scenarios of climate change,balancing the land and water resources is one of the key problems needed to be solved in land development.To reveal the water dynamics of the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin,we simulated the future scenarios by using the future land use simulation model based on Landsat Satellite images,the DEM data and the meteorological data.Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land gradually decreased.It showed different changing characteristics in different time periods,which led to different balancing effect between land and water resources.In 1990,the water dynamics of the cultivated land resources was in good state,At the same time,the adjustment of crops structure caused the paddy fields increased dramatically.During 2002 to 2014,the cultivated land that in moderate and serious moisture shortage state increased slightly,the water deficit was deteriorating to a certain degree,and maintained sound development of water profit and loss situation gradually.By comparing the simulation accuracy with different spatial resolutions and time scales,we selected 200 m as the spatial resolution of the simulation,and simulated the land use status in 2038.The simulation results showed that the cultivated land's water profit and loss degree in the river basin showed significant polarization characteristic,in that the water profit and loss degree of the cultivated land would be further intensified,the area with the higher grades of moisture profit and loss degree would distribute more centralized,and partially high evaluated grades for the moisture shortage would expand.It is needed to develop the cultivated land irrigation schemes and adjust the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin to balance soil and water resources.关键词
水土资源/耕地/平衡效应/未来土地利用模拟模型/挠力河流域Key words
land and water resource/cultivated land/balancing effect/future land use simulation model/Naoli River Basin引用本文复制引用
周浩,雷国平,杨雪昕,赵宇辉,张继新..RCPs气候情景下挠力河流域耕地水土资源平衡效应模拟[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(4):1302-1312,11.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671520)资助 （41671520）
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671520). （41671520）
