灾害学2018，Vol.33Issue(2)：51-57,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.02.011
农作物气象灾害风险识别与评估研究
Weather-related Diaster Risk Recognizing and Assessment of Crop
摘要
Abstract
In this article,the relateionship of weather-related diaster indices and crop's yield loss was built through the data optimal matching technology,and then weather-related disaster risk was recognized and assessed,by using rice in Laian county and mazie in Xiao county in Anhui province of China.Considering the annual trend of yield,LMA method with the variable step was used to remove the trendy yield,and as a result the annual yield loss was obtained.According to the characteristics of study region and crop's growth period,the indices corresponding to 5 weather-related disaste including (drought,flood,high temperature,cold demage,and spare sunlight) were constructed using 3 meteorological elements (precipitation,temperature and sunlight).Then,the annual peak value and cumulative value of 5 weather-related disaster indices were calculted with the daily value of meteorological elements.In general,a weather-related disaster is an extreme weather event type.More specifically,it is an anomalous weather event type.As a consequence,crop yields are expected to appear anomalous too when anomalous weather events appear.Therefore,it is investigated what would be the best mathematic relationship between the anomalies of 5 weather-related disaster indices and crop's yield loss.With the relationship,any one of 5 weather-related disaser risks of rice in Laian and maize in Xiao would be simlated,and as a result,its respondeing risk curve would be created and expected yield lose would be caculted.Moreover,5 weather-related disasters would be ranked according to their expected yield losses.the recognizing and assessment to weather-related risk of crop would play an important role in the early warning of agriculture weather-related disasters and the weather-based index insurance for agriculture.关键词
农作物/气象灾害/风险识别/风险评估/气象灾害指数/异常优化匹配Key words
crop/weather-related disaster risk/risk recognizing/risk assessment/weather-related disaster index/anomaly optimal matching分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵思健,张峭,聂谦,郑茗曦..农作物气象灾害风险识别与评估研究[J].灾害学,2018,33(2):51-57,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41471426) （41471426）
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2017-19) （JBYW-AII-2017-19）
中国财产再保险有限责任公司委托课题“农业灾害易损性分析” （）
