灾害学2018，Vol.33Issue(2)：114-121,145,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.02.020
1978-2016年全国分区农业气象灾害灾情趋势分析
Regional Analysis of Agro-meteorological Disasters Loss Tendency Variation From 1978 to 2016 in China
摘要
Abstract
China has 7 geographical regions,in which agro-meteorological disasters loss are significantly different.Supported by agricultural and natural disasters statistical database of China,the long term trend of the influences of drought,flood,hailstorm,chilling damage on crops area during 1978-2016 are covered in this article at the national and regional level.Then,based on the disaster theory,economic losses are estimated in 7 regions.Finally,by choosing the optimal parameters,exceeding probability of regional disaster areas on crops are covered.The results indicate that:Agro-meteorological Disasters,especially drought,have a great impact on agricultural production.Different from the decreasing tendency of national disaster areas on crops,drought disaster area,chilling damaged and disaster area have increased by years.On sub-regional analysis,drought damaged and disaster area in the northeast and drought disaster area in the southwest of China also have increasing trends.Chilling damaged and disaster area have increased in most regions except the northeast of China.Drought is the major disaster factor of crop economic losses in each region.关键词
地理分区/灾情/趋势变化/经济损失估算/中国Key words
geographical division/disaster loss/trend variation/estimate of economic losses/China分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王丹丹,潘东华,郭桂祯..1978-2016年全国分区农业气象灾害灾情趋势分析[J].灾害学,2018,33(2):114-121,145,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41471428) （41471428）
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所资助项目(IAM201609) （IAM201609）
