电工技术学报2018，Vol.33Issue(9)：2068-2076,9.DOI:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.170385
基于气象信息粒还原的台风分时段短期负荷预测
Typhoon-Period Short Term Load Forecasting Based on Particle Reduction of Weather Information
摘要
Abstract
During the typhoon period, the weather will undergo a three-stage change, and the periodic model of power load will be broken. In order to improve the accuracy of load prediction during the typhoon period, a time load forecasting method based on particle reduction of weather information is proposed. To adapt to the process of weather changes in typhoon transit, the trend of load level during the typhoon period is regarded as the segmentation function, and the time period is determined by the determination condition of the typhoon mode. According to the great correlation between adjusting load and change of urban load affected by typhoon, load variation model is established by multiple linear regression fitting the key factors. When the wind speed reaches a certain threshold, the loss of load caused by destructive typhoon is considered. The basic adjusting forecasting model is established by seeking similar Typhoon-free properties environments in the method of particle reduction for weather information. The simulation results of data validation in Guangxi electric power grid provide a more accurate data support for the grid scheduling arrangement during the typhoon period.关键词
台风负荷预测/气象信息粒还原/分时段预测/多元线性回归拟合Key words
Typhoon forecasting/weather information for particle reduction/time prediction/multiple linear regression分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李滨,黄佳,吴茵,覃芳璐..基于气象信息粒还原的台风分时段短期负荷预测[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(9):2068-2076,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51407036)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB228205)资助项目. （51407036）
