当代经济管理2018，Vol.40Issue(5)：9-14,6.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2018.05.002
房价不确定性对城镇居民消费影响的研究——一个行为金融学角度的分析
The Effect of House Price Uncertainty on Urban Resident Consumption——An Analysis of Behavioral Finance
摘要
Abstract
The impact of house price uncertainty on the consumption of urban residents in China has been studied in this paper. According to its characteristics, uncertainty has been divided as the " better than anticipation" uncertainty and the " worse than anticipaiton" uncertainty. At this period, house price uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on consumption, and the impact of the characteristics of uncertainty is asymmetric. Furthermore, urban residents' consumption is more sensitive for " better than anticipation" uncertainty. In order to explore its internal reasons, the theories and methods of behavioral economics are used in the research. It is hypothesized that the insecure psychology of residents is an important factor to determine their consumption behaviors, and the uncertainty change is an important factor affecting the insecure psychology. It has been proved that when the changing uncertainty endangers the psychological safety needs of residents, the elastic response coefficient between the consumption and income growth would diminish significantly. The above conclusions indicate that the government can regulate the uncertainty of house price in the following aspects: (1) guarantee residents' psychological security needs by improving the transparency of information and reducing the uncertainty; (2) in order to stimulate consumption, a reasonable guide of anticipation and enhance of resident's consumption intention is necessary.关键词
房价不确定性/不安全心理/居民消费/行为经济学Key words
house price uncertainty/insecure psychology/resident consumption/behavioral economics分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
樊锦霞,叶莉,张玉梅..房价不确定性对城镇居民消费影响的研究——一个行为金融学角度的分析[J].当代经济管理,2018,40(5):9-14,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目《房地产调控政策的影响及其效应研究》(12BJY053). （12BJY053）
