海洋预报2018，Vol.35Issue(2)：19-26,8.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2018.02.003
基于EC集合预报的渤海灾害性大风风速预报方法研究
EC ensemble forecast on severe gale speed in the Bohai Sea
摘要
Abstract
Based on the hourly wind data at Bohai A flat platform from 2014 to 2015,the numbers of gale defined as higher than 7 level and continuous 6h are counted with a total number of 36.Using forecasting 51 forecast members of the European Center set,the effects of optimal membership and optimal percentile forecasting products to predict the effect of 10 m wind speed are compared.The results show that the set forecast has the effect of underestimation for the wind above 7,and the optimal members of the set forecast are not only determined from the preferred members.Six sets of forecast percentiles (maximum,95,90,85,80,75 percentile)predict wind farms,and most forecasts are smaller than actual.The error of the set forecast is calibrated by the historical deviation,and the error is reduced after the inverse calculation.Therefore,the forecast of the annihilated winds has the effect of underestimation,and the forecasting level of the post-antecedent forecast is obviously improved,and the optimal wind percentage of the wind farm products can be used to forecast the severe winds in the Bohai Sea.关键词
集合预报/最优百分位/渤海/风速误差Key words
ensemble forecast/optimal percentile/Bohai/wind speed error分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
刘彬贤,陈宏,左涛,王亚男,孙晓磊,罗凯..基于EC集合预报的渤海灾害性大风风速预报方法研究[J].海洋预报,2018,35(2):19-26,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41675046) （41675046）
中国气象局关键技术项目(CMAHX20160302) （CMAHX20160302）
天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划(青年项目)(15JCQNJC07600) （青年项目）
环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201712). （QYXM201712）
