海洋预报2018，Vol.35Issue(2)：60-66,7.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2018.02.008
“20160227"青岛水上交通事故的气象条件分析和预报反思
Meteorological conditions in "20160227" marine accident and its forecast reflection in Qingdao
摘要
Abstract
Combined with observation data and numerical model products,meteorological conditions in "20160227" marine accident of Qingdao and its forecast are analyzed and reflected.The results show that (1)Foggy area near the accident point originates from south part of Qingdao coastal water.It spreads towards north and east then,and only extends to 50～60 km from the coastal line characterized as local offshore fog.(2)Both advection and radiation factors favor to the development of this fog event.The fact that all operational numerical model products haven't provided useful guidance during the event reflects our poor forecast skill for offshore fog.(3) All official meteorological units fail to forecast this offshore fog in advance.There exists a big disparity between our current ability in marine meteorological service and needs from relevant sectors.In respect of CMA's marine meteorological operations,inexperienced staff,manpower shortage,products without pertinence and lag-behind dissemination in provincial or prefectural meteorological offices have seriously restrained the advances of related services.An operational marine fog ensemble forecast system would be a crucial support for the future operations.Currently,combination synoptic situation with latest observation could facilitate a better forecast or waming.关键词
水上交通事故/气象条件/预报反思Key words
marine accident/meteorological condition/forecast reflection分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
漆梁波..“20160227"青岛水上交通事故的气象条件分析和预报反思[J].海洋预报,2018,35(2):60-66,7.基金项目
中国气象局暴雨预报专家创新团队项目(CMACXTD002-3). （CMACXTD002-3）
