棉花学报2018，Vol.30Issue(1)：83-91,9.DOI:10.11963/1002-7807.hltpxb.2017120
基于COSIM模型的棉花区域产量动态预测研究——以新疆阿克苏市为例
Dynamic Prediction of Cotton Regional Yield Based on the COSIM Model-A Case Study of Akesu City, Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] Dynamic prediction of crop yield using a crop growth simulation model is the focus of increasing research attention.[Method] Based on meteorological,cotton yield,and cotton phenology data recorded at Akesu in Xinjiang from 1991 to 2014,this study aimed to improve the accuracy of crop yield prediction by the COSIM model.The average sowing date for each study year,as well as multiple sowing dates during the suitable sowing period,was imported into the COSIM model,and the two yield prediction methods were compared and analyzed.[Result] The accuracy of both yield prediction methods was higher than 90.0％,indicating that the two methods showed good applicability at Akesu.However,the method using multiple sowing dates during the suitable sowing period showed higher prediction accuracy when cotton yield was dynamically predicted in each month and the actual sowing date was uncertain.[Conclusion] The two prediction methods based on the crop growth simulation model are suitable for prediction of cotton yield at Akesu.In addition,according to the characteristics of different forecast years,the appropriate forecasting method can be used to improve the accuracy of prediction.The results also provide a reference for dynamic prediction of cotton yield in other cotton-producing areas.关键词
棉花/COSIM模型/播种期/产量预测Key words
cotton/COSIM model/sowing date/yield prediction分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
胡莉婷,潘学标,王雪姣,胡琦..基于COSIM模型的棉花区域产量动态预测研究——以新疆阿克苏市为例[J].棉花学报,2018,30(1):83-91,9.基金项目
公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201206022) （GYHY201206022）
