气象2018，Vol.44Issue(4)：565-571,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.04.010
2017年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析
Precursory Signal Analysis of Summer Rainfall Prediction in China in 2017
摘要
Abstract
During the summer of 2017 (June to August),the average precipitation over China was 348.6 mm,which is 8.1%more than normal (332.6 mm).Two rainfall bands were observed over eastern China.The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was weaker than normal,while the west Pacific sub-tropical high (WPSH) was significantly stronger than normal with southward ridge position.The "-+-" circulation pattern was located in Eurasian mid-high latitude with positive anomaly over the Lake of Baikal region.The cold SST in the middle-east of equatorial Pacific in the early winter changed to warm phase in the summer of 2017,and the 4th rain pattern,e.g.above normal rainfall in southern China,pre-vailed,while the blocking high over the Lake of Baikal appeared frequently.The major precursory signals of southward rainband are the weakened cold sea surface temperature (SST) in the middle-east of equator Pacific in early winter 2016,the positive triple SST in the North Atlantic in spring 2017,and the decreased snow cover in Eurasia from autumn to winter in 2016.Their common effects benefit the blocking high for-mation over the Lake of Baikal.关键词
夏季降水/赤道中东太平洋海温/北大西洋三极子/欧亚积雪Key words
summer precipitation/SST in the middle-east equator Pacific/triple SST in the North Atlantic/snow cover in Eurasia分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王永光,郑志海..2017年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,2018,44(4):565-571,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603701)、中央引导地方科技发展专项(ZY18C12)、国家自然科学基金项目(41475096)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B04)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB453203)和中国气象局核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160503)共同资助 （2017YFA0603701）
