气象2018，Vol.44Issue(4)：582-589,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.04.012
2016年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋预报精度评定
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2016
摘要
Abstract
Operational positioning,track,intensity and landfall point forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific in 2016 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI's "Best-track" dataset. The results show that the performance of TC positioning is a little larger than that in last year,with an av-erage error by all methods is 24.9 km.The track forecast errors of both subjective and objective methods do not continue to decrease,which means the overall forecast performance in 2016 is slightly lower than that in the previous two years.The ECMWF-EPS,NCEP-GEFS and UKMO-EPS have better performance in track prediction than other ensemble prediction systems.No significant improvement in TC intensity prediction by subjective methods has been seen compared with previous years.However,the subjective methods have very small prediction error for the 24 h landfall point of Super Typhoon Sarika in Wanning, Hainan,and the errors are less than 15 km.The landfall prediction performance of global models is better than that of regional models.关键词
热带气旋/定位误差/路径误差/强度误差Key words
tropical cyclone (TC)/positioning error/track error/intensity error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈国民,张喜平,白莉娜,万日金..2016年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,2018,44(4):582-589,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41275067、41305049、41475058和41405060)共同资助 （41275067、41305049、41475058和41405060）
