热带气象学报2018，Vol.34Issue(2)：153-161,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2018.02.002
我国沿海主要省份热带气旋风雨因子危险性分析Ⅱ:年代际变化特征
ANALYSIS ON HAZARDS OF THE WIND AND RAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATEDWITH TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA'S MAJOR COASTAL PROVINCES Ⅱ:INTERDECADAL CHANGES
摘要
Abstract
Based on the best track dataset of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the wind and rain data observed at the relevant meteorological stations,and by adopting the hazard model,the hazards of wind factor,rain factor and their synthesis for the TCs affecting China's major coastal provinces were calculated in this study,respectively.The interdecadal change of these hazards was analyzed,and the results are as follows:The synthesized hazards increased decade by decade,while the hazards of the wind factor weakened and those of the rain factor enhanced.When comparing the conditions in the 2000s to those in the 1970s,the TCs resulted in heavier precipitation,the probability of extreme wind speed decreased,and the frequency of TC activities was fewer,with slightly stronger intensity and longer duration.In the 2000s,when compared to the 1970s,the TCs had stronger cyclonic circulation,and there was abnormal southwest wind at the lower troposphere with abnormal water vapor transmission,and generated an abnormal water-vapor convergence zone with a southwest-northeast trend.Under the effect of remarkable vertical movement,more vapor would be brought to the upper level,which helped generate rainfall in the 2000s.关键词
气候学/热带气旋/风雨因子/危险性/年代际变化Key words
climatology/tropical cyclone/wind and rain factors/hazard/interdecadal change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尹宜舟,黄建斌,朱志存,罗勇..我国沿海主要省份热带气旋风雨因子危险性分析Ⅱ:年代际变化特征[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(2):153-161,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41505060、41571494) （41505060、41571494）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)共同资助 （气象）
