热带气象学报2018，Vol.34Issue(2)：177-187,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2018.02.004
针对对流降水预报的BJ-RUC系统1小时更新循环方案研究
THE DESIGN OF HOURLY UPDATE BJ-RUC SYSTEM FOR IMPROVING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING
摘要
Abstract
This study shows an improved version of Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling (BJ-RUC) forecast system with hourly update frequency and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF).The new BJ-RUC system adopted the two-step assimilation strategy with additional improvements.Synoptic and convective observations are assimilated in different steps to extract both large-scale and convective-scale information from observations.The new system was tested with four convective cases in Beijing area during summer 2009.A detailed analysis on how the new system impacts on convective-scale QPF was conducted using a squall line case in Beijing area on 23 July 2009.The improvement in the new system results in improved QPF throughout most of the 12 h forecast period.The diagnoses of the analysis fields show that the new system is able to preserve key convective-scale as well as large-scale structures that are consistent with the development of the weather system.This study provides a prototype for operational short-term prediction of the local convective weather system.关键词
资料同化/1小时快速更新循环/定量降水预报/三维变分同化/雷达/分步资料同化Key words
data assimilation/hourly rapid update cycling/QPF/3DVAR/radar/two-step assimilation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
童文雪,李刚,孙娟珍..针对对流降水预报的BJ-RUC系统1小时更新循环方案研究[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(2):177-187,11.基金项目
北京市科技计划项目“快速更新精细化短临数值预报技术与应用研发”(Z161100001116098) （Z161100001116098）
中国气象局气象探测中心招标项目(20110266)共同资助 （20110266）
