热带气象学报2018，Vol.34Issue(2)：198-208,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2018.02.006
云物理初始化对一次强对流天气数值预报的影响研究
INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLOUD INITIALIZATION ON NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
摘要
Abstract
Using the second generation of SMS-WARR Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,prediction of a severe convective event in East China is analyzed with the focus on the impact of cloud initialization.Comparison between the prediction results from the experiments with and without cloud initialization shows that the forecast using the cloud initialization can greatly increase the TS score of 0～6 hour rainfall,and the position of the forecasted precipitation is closer to that of the observation.Further analysis indicates that cloud initialization can significantly improve the initial fields of hydrometeors,provide more accurate information of the convection system,and produce better forecasts of hydrometeors and vertical velocity over the severe convection area.Moreover,cloud initiation largely avoids the delay of precipitation occurrence during the early stage and shortens the "spin-up" time due to the lack of the initial microphysical information.However,results with and without the cloud initialization become quite similar to each other when the integration time period exceeds 6 hours.关键词
天气预报/预报方法/云初始化/快速更新Key words
weather forecast/forecast method/cloud initialization/rapid refresh分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李佳,陈葆德,黄伟,张旭..云物理初始化对一次强对流天气数值预报的影响研究[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(2):198-208,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划“政府间国际科技合作项目”重点专项(2016YFE0109700) （2016YFE0109700）
国家自然科学基金项目(41575101、41505087) （41575101、41505087）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206006)共同资助 （气象）
