水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(4)：8-17,10.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.04.002
城市内涝灾害应急救援兵棋推演研究
Study on war-game simulation on emergency rescue of urban waterlogging disaster
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the huge impact from urban waterlogging disaster on resident,traffic and urban infrastructure,while taking detection of high risk event and the vulnerability of emergency scheme as the target,the process of the emergency rescue for the urban waterlogging disaster is simulated by means of war-game simulation.Based on the war-game simulation and the relevant disaster theory,the dynamic war-game chess piece model,rainstorm rule,visualized map and war-game simulation model are comprehensively established in combination with the methods of GIS technique,decision tree,etc.,and then the war-game simulation of the emergency rescue for the urban waterlogging disaster is realized.The result shows that within two emergency rescue action schemes,although the action 1 of our side is able to complete the emergency rescue for the waterlogging disaster,the probability of the loss caused therein is very high,while the action 2 of our side can fulfill the emergency rescue for the waterlogging disaster with a smaller probability of the loss caused thereinunder the given scenario of the rainstorm with the return-period of 5 years with18 simulating rounds.Introducing the method of the war-game simulation into the emergency rescue for urban waterlogging disaster can accurately simulate the feasibility of the emergency scheme,for which the study result has an important significance for enhancing the commandcapability,management capability and decision capability of the relevant emergency sectors to flexibly deal with the emergency event concerned.关键词
内涝灾害/应急救援/兵棋推演/应急管理与风险决策/生态文明建设/城市治理/内涝风险评估/海绵城市建设Key words
waterlogging disaster/emergency rescue/war-game simulation/contingency management and risk decision/ecological civilization construction/urban governance/risk assessment of waterlogging/Sponge City construction分类
土木建筑引用本文复制引用
陈鹏,张继权,孙滢悦,刘晓静..城市内涝灾害应急救援兵棋推演研究[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(4):8-17,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41501557,41371495) （41501557,41371495）
吉林省科技厅青年基金项目(20150520081JH) （20150520081JH）
