水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(4)：33-38,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.04.005
基于模糊点估计法的水闸渗流可靠度分析
Fuzzy point estimation method-based analysis on reliability of sluice seepage
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problems of less observation data of sluice and large amount of uncertain factors occurring during analysis of sluice seepage,a study on the fuzzy reliability of sluice seepage is made herein.As the fuzzy point estimation method has the characteristics of that the fuzziness and randomness of parameter can be simultaneously taken into account by it,the method is applied to the reliability analysis of sluice seepage.Under the consideration of the fuzzy randomness of the sluice foundation soil parameter,the various level cut sets are taken for the fuzzy random variables,such as the water level in front of sluice,the specific gravity of solid particles and porosity of sluice foundation soil,the permeability coefficients of all the soil layers,etc.,and then the parameters obtained from the same level cut set are combined and the fuzzy reliable index of sluice seepage is calculated through then method of statistic moment.Taking a sluice that operates for many years as the study case,it is suggested that 3 is taken for the value range under the consideration of the influence from the membership function on the reliable index.Through this method,it is obtained that the safety coefficient of the sluice seepage is 2.70 and the reliable index is 5.597 when the sluice is well water-sealed,while the safety coefficient of the sluice seepage is 0.98 and the reliable index is-0.151 when the water seal is damaged.If the calculation result is compared with the reliable index got from the Latin hypercube sampling method (LHS),both of them are basically coincided,thus it is indicated that this method is adaptable for the reliability analysis of sluice seepage.关键词
水闸渗流/模糊点估计法/可靠度/止水失效/拉丁超立方抽样法(LHS)Key words
sluice seepage/fuzzy point estimation method/reliability/water seal failure/Latin hypercube sampling method (LHS)分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
刘庆晶,刘晓青,刘坤,朱松松..基于模糊点估计法的水闸渗流可靠度分析[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(4):33-38,6.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目:水闸工程安全评价及除险加固关键技术研发(201501036) （201501036）
