生态学报2018，Vol.38Issue(8)：2948-2957,10.DOI:10.5846/stxb201704160675
FLEXPART模式模拟褐飞虱回迁的适用性
Applicability of the FLEXPART model in simulating the return migration of Nilaparvata lugens
摘要
Abstract
Nilaparvata lugens (St(a)l) is an agricultural pest that has been a serious threat to rice production in Southern China.As a migratory insect,the migration of N.lugens is similar to aerosol particle motion in the atmosphere.In this study,we used the WRF-FLEXPART model to simulate two migration processes of N.lugens,by adopting specific migratory parameters of N.lugens.The first case was conducted to simulate the migration of N.lugens to Xing'an,during the period Sep.20th-24th,2013.The population of N.lugens simulated using WRF-FLEXPART was consistent with the population observed in the field,and the correlation coefficient was 0.49 (P＜0.01).Further,the simulated peak of N.lugens take-off time was approximately 1.5 hours earlier than the observed value.This may be related to the initiation of N.hugens flight and take-off and their physiological properties.The second case was in a cold front process without precipitation during the period Oct.5th-7th,2008.The results showed that the southward front and the decrease in air temperature had a considerable influence on the migration of N.lugens.The details are as follows:① For trajectory,tropical cyclones generate a northeast wind in Guangxi,Guizhou,Hunan,and the west of Guangdong,which provides advantages for N.lugens to migrate from northeast to southwest.② For density distribution,due to good dynamic (wind direction and wind speed),temperature (warm),and humidity (wet) conditions,large numbers of N.lugens migrate into the central part of Guangdong.Compared with Guangdong,the lower surface temperature in Hubei was not favorable to a mass migration of N.lugens,although Hubei has suitable dynamic conditions (the northwest-northeast wind).In conclusion,the modeling results indicate that WRF-FLEXPART is applicable for simulating the migration of N.lugens and shows good performance in simulating the migration process of N.lugens.This research can provide an important reference for N.lugens disaster forecasting and warning in China.关键词
褐飞虱/WRF-FLEXPART模式/适用性/模式验证Key words
Nilaparvata lugens (St(a)l)/WRF-FLEXPART model/applicability/model validation引用本文复制引用
刘垚,魏巍,刘维,王健,包云轩,杨若子..FLEXPART模式模拟褐飞虱回迁的适用性[J].生态学报,2018,38(8):2948-2957,10.基金项目
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性项目 （）
国家自然科学基金项目(41475106,41075086) （41475106,41075086）
