干旱区地理2018，Vol.41Issue(1)：127-133,7.
雅砻江上游径流及影响因素关系研究
Runoff and its influencing factors in the upper reaches of the Yalong River
摘要
Abstract
This paper is mainly devoted to the analysis of the runoff and its influencing factors in the upper reaches of the Yalong River,Sichuan Province,China based on correlation analysis and multivariate regression method.Firstly,we divided the annual runoff cycle into the drought period,snowmelt-affecting period and runoff-falling period based on the correlation analysis.With MODIS 8d snow-cover products,and the air temperature data and rainfall data in the study area,the correlation between the runoff and its influencing factors as well as the influencing degree of each factor to the change of the runoff were then analyzed using correlation analysis and attribution analysis.Finally,a runoff prediction equation in the drought period and the snowmelt-affecting period was concluded using the method of stepwise multivariate regression.The results showed that from an overall perspective the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yalong River was on the rise from 2000 to 2014.It was dropped by 24.89％ due to the reduction of snow cover in the drought period yet it was increased by 79.38％ because of the rainfall in the runoff-falling period.The method developed in this paper can be used effectively to analyze the correlation between the runoff and its influencing factors and to understand the influential degree of each factor.关键词
雅砻江上游/径流/相关性/归因分析/逐步多元回归Key words
the upper reaches of the Yalong River/runoff/correlation/attribution analysis/stepwise multivariate regression分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄艳艳,赵红莉,蒋云钟,卢鑫..雅砻江上游径流及影响因素关系研究[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(1):127-133,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC041307) （2016YFC041307）
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(WR0145B012017) （WR0145B012017）
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(WR0145B272016) （WR0145B272016）
