中北大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：334-343,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-3193.2018.03.015
山西省碳排放影响因素分解及峰值预测
Study on Influence Factors of Carbon Emission and Prediction of Peak Value in Shanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 in Shanxi Province,LMDI decomposition model was set up,and the adjusted STRIPAT model in Shanxi was built for fitting carbon emissions and other factors,the carbon emissions peak and the time reached peak under different scenarios was concluded. At the same time,a GM(1,1)prediction model was established to further verify the validity of the re-sults.The results show that carbon emissions increase by 287 million tons in 2014 compared with 2000. Among them,the economic scale effect and the fixed asset investment effect have a significant positive effect on the increase of carbon emission,and the industrial energy intensity has a great inhibitory effect on the increase of carbon emission.According to the situation analysis of STIRPAT's model,it is predic-ted that the future carbon emission peak of Shanxi Province will be between 600 and 1000 million tons. In different scenarios,Shanxi has a 75% probability of achieving its peak by 2030.In addition,the GM(1,1)prediction model further proves the effectiveness of the results.In view of this,it is proposed to adjust industrial structure,develop green economy and increase carbon sinks.关键词
碳排放/LMDI/STIRPAT模型/情景分析Key words
carbon emission/LMDI/STIRPAT model/scenario analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
杜俊慧,张克勇,张雪姣..山西省碳排放影响因素分解及峰值预测[J].中北大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,39(3):334-343,10.基金项目
山西省哲学社会科学资助项目(16109000001zs) （16109000001zs）
山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究资助项目(2016245) （2016245）
山西省社科联资助项目(SSKLZDK2016102) （SSKLZDK2016102）
中北大学科学基金资助项目(110246) （110246）
