郑州大学学报（医学版）2018，Vol.53Issue(3)：299-303,5.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.04.026
基于年龄-时期-队列模型的我国人口生育率趋势分析
Analysis on trend of fertility in China by age-period-cohort model
摘要
Abstract
Aim:To analyze the changing trends of fertility by age-period-cohort model.Methods: The total fertility rate and parity-specific fertility rate in 1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were calculated based on the data from National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. The age-period-cohort model was fitted.Results: Since 1995, the fertility rate and first-child fertility rate showed a downward trend,while fertility rates of second-child and third-child and above increased. The birth bloom of total fertility was delayed, from 20 years old in 1995 to 25 years old in 2015. Age was the most important factor of fertility in China. The age groups with a higher fertility rate for total fertility, first-child fertility, second-child fertility and third-child and above fertility were 20-34 years old,20-29 years old,20-34 years old and 25-34 years old, respectively. The change of policy during the period mainly affected the second-child fertility rate. The second-child fertility rate rose in 2015. The fertility rate of birth cohorts from 1966 to 1985 was higher than that of other cohorts. Conclusion: There are delays in fertility bloom in China. The total birth bloom age is 20 -34 years old, and the period effect affects the second child fertility rate. The fertility rate of the lately birth cohort population did not decrease.关键词
生育率/生育高峰/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
fertility/birth bloom/age-period-cohort model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
程志伟,杨永利,贾晓灿,杜玉慧,夏振华,张卫萍,施学忠..基于年龄-时期-队列模型的我国人口生育率趋势分析[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2018,53(3):299-303,5.基金项目
河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(201402002) （201402002）
