人民长江2018，Vol.49Issue(9)：98-102,106,6.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2018.09.018
基于模糊理论的三峡升船机重大危险源风险分析
Risk analysis of major hazard source of Three Gorges Ship Lift based on fuzzy theory
摘要
Abstract
The Three Gorges ship lift is in a stage of trial navigation,and systematric analysis on the major hazard sources is the key to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the ship lift. Firstly,we referred to the test data of Three Gorges ship lift in trial navigation stage to determine the types of accidents. Then a hazards′estimating system consisted of energy instability index and accident consequence severity were established based on the accident chain rule. At last,the fuzzy theory was used to deter-mine the weights of assessment index and evaluation membership, so a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model is constructed for the major hazard sources. The analysis results showed that:(1) The comprehensive risk degree of the accident consequences se-verity system was greater than the energy instability of risk source;(2) The major hazard source system of Three Gorges ship lift risk was classed as three levels. It is needed to take corresponding prevention and control measures according to the three-level warning plan,to provide guarantee for the formal operation of the Three Gorges ship lift.关键词
重大危险源/风险分析/模糊理论模型/三峡升船机Key words
major hazard source/risk analysis/fuzzy theoretical model/Three Gorges Ship Lift分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王建平,王美如,张儒学,李智..基于模糊理论的三峡升船机重大危险源风险分析[J].人民长江,2018,49(9):98-102,106,6.基金项目
水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金(2016KSD03) （2016KSD03）
