人民黄河2018，Vol.40Issue(5)：39-43,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2018.05.009
基于随机模拟的汛期水库超蓄调度风险分析
Risk Analysis of Reservoir Over-Storage at Flood Season Based on Stochastic Simulation Method
咸京 1顾圣平 1林乐曼 1归力佳 1李江林1
作者信息
- 1. 河海大学 水利水电学院,江苏 南京210098
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
It is an effective and risky way to solve the contradiction between the large amount of abandoned water and the shortage of water re-sources in flood season.In this paper,the influence of three uncertainties including flood process,flood time and operating rules on over-stor-age was analyzed. Considering the risk of dam and downstream flood control,a risk analysis model was established. The highest water level of reservoir and the maximum downstream outflow were taken as the evaluating indexes. The stochastic simulation method was used to solve the model. The study results show that increasing the water level will increase the risk,and the use of appropriate flood regulation rules can re-duce the risk.关键词
水库超蓄/风险分析/随机模拟/风险率Key words
reservoir over-storage/risk analysis/stochastic simulation method/risk rate分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
咸京,顾圣平,林乐曼,归力佳,李江林..基于随机模拟的汛期水库超蓄调度风险分析[J].人民黄河,2018,40(5):39-43,5.
