上海城市规划Issue(2)：5-10,6.
情景分析对交通运输的积极和消极作用——从欧洲1970年代以来的发展预测2050年
The Didactical Function of Bright and Horror Scenarios, 1970-2050 Case Study: Scenarios for the European Transport Industry
摘要
Abstract
Scenarios have a didactical impact and motivation, even when it is not the aim of their authors. The article discusses these motivations and functions by analysing dark and bright scenarios for European transport planning and European transport industry since the late 1960s.With the perspective of the self-full filling prophecy effect, one can argue that dark scenarios implicitly lead to activities to avoid their realisation. The example of the European transport industry in the period 1960s-1980s - largely described in this essay -confirms the above. A broad analysis of historical and present dark scenarios in the field of transport clearly shows how they indicated"no-go" paths, while the "bright" scenarios did offer "go-go" perspectives. This didactic impact of scenarios as a policy instrument was especially strong when dissemination targeted a wider audience, beyond the client and the stakeholders. Infiuential scenarios for the future of urban planning should mix "Go Go"-Leitmotifs with "No Go" warnings. Sometimes the didactical intention is so strong that it harms the scientific rigidy of the scenario. In any case, the didactical background of scenarios have to be discussed both by the authors and the audience.关键词
交通运输业/情景分析/欧盟Key words
European transport industry/Scenarios analyse/European Union分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
Hans-Liudger Dienel,Robin Kellermann,Massimo Moraglio..情景分析对交通运输的积极和消极作用——从欧洲1970年代以来的发展预测2050年[J].上海城市规划,2018,(2):5-10,6.基金项目
本项目得到"欧洲联盟第七框架计划"(FP7/2007—2013)的资助(编号314753). （FP7/2007—2013）
