水力发电2018，Vol.44Issue(5)：86-89,93,5.
流域梯级电站群运行安全风险动态评估模型研究
Research on Dynamic Evaluation Model of Operation Safety Risk of Cascade Hydropower Stations
王勇飞 1吴震宇 2张瀚 2张康2
作者信息
- 1. 国电大渡河流域水电开发有限公司,四川 成都610041
- 2. 四川大学水利水电学院,四川 成都610065
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to scientifically evaluate the safety risk of cascade hydropower stations,the security risk index system is established,which covers five elements of "Person,Machine,Material,Method and Environment" with nine categories and 19 674 scale index.The uncertainty model and information entropy for data group decision-making are used to put forward the uncertainty entropy model of dynamic risk index weight.Based on the dynamic evolution mechanism of risk factors such accident probability,accident severity and exposure rate of people in dangerous environment,and considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk index,the dynamic quantitative safety risk evaluation model for cascade hydropower stations is built and applied to the cascade hydropower stations in Dadu River Basin.The results show that the model can solve the real-time quantitative risk evaluation of cascade hydropower stations under the condition of uncertainty and fuzziness of index,and achieve the real-time risk early warning of cascade hydropower stations.关键词
流域梯级电站群/安全风险/动态评估/大渡河Key words
cascade hydropower station/safety risk/dynamic evaluation/Dadu River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王勇飞,吴震宇,张瀚,张康..流域梯级电站群运行安全风险动态评估模型研究[J].水力发电,2018,44(5):86-89,93,5.
