水利水电科技进展2018，Vol.38Issue(3)：32-35,59,5.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2018.03.006
基于蒙特卡罗模拟的混凝土坝渗流性态区间综合评价
Comprehensive interval assessment of seepage behavior for concrete dams based on Monte Carlo simulation
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at reducing the strong subjectivity caused by single value scores in seepage behavior assessment of concrete dams,the methods based on interval grading are suggested. The weight factors are introduced to represent the difference among evaluation levels of the experts. The degree of the disagreement on seepage behavior is described by an interval probability distribution function and the subjective weight is corrected based on the interval width. The Monte Carlo simulation method is then introduced into the comprehensive evaluation of the seepage behavior. The proposed method was applied to assess the seepage condition of the No. 7 section in a concrete dam and the probability of the assessment grade belonged to basic normal and above normal was 99.9%. The assessment result is basically normal and consistent with actual operation, showing the interval assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation is feasible to evaluate the seepage behavior of concrete dams and it can also be applied to project assessment with high uncertainty in which single value grading is difficult to be applied.关键词
混凝土坝/渗流性态评价/区间评分/蒙特卡罗模拟Key words
concrete dam/seepage behavior assessment/interval grading/Monte Carlo simulation引用本文复制引用
李家田,苏怀智,赵海超,王少波..基于蒙特卡罗模拟的混凝土坝渗流性态区间综合评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(3):32-35,59,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601) （2016YFC0401601）
国家自然科学基金(51579083,51479054) （51579083,51479054）
