天然气与石油2018，Vol.36Issue(2)：24-29,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2018.02.005
Monte Carlo方法在管道裂纹缺陷评价中的应用
Application of Monte Carlo Method in Evaluation of Crack Defects in Pipes
摘要
Abstract
A gas pipeline was reported to have a large number of pipe body crack defects after in-line inspection. For the quantitative analysis of the failure probability of pipe crack,this paper summarizes the structural integrity assessment method based on structural-reliability analysis. According to the British standard BS 7910:2013, certainty evaluation method and structural-reliability analysis evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation were carried out to evaluate the acceptability of the gas pipeline pipe body crack defects,and two kinds of evaluation methods were analyzed comparatively. The certainty evaluation results can only show whether the defects are acceptable or not and whether the partial factor is considered or not has great influence,and through the Matlab programming calculation,the pipeline failure probability is 3.17 ×10 -3after the 10 7simulation using Monte Carlo. The structural integrity assessment method based on structural-reliability analysis can analyze the failure probability of oil & gas pipeline pipe body crack defects quantitatively. Compared with the certainty evaluation, the structural integrity assessment method based on structural-reliability analysis is more convenient for pipeline management departments to balance pipeline failure risk and maintenance cost, which is of great significance for guiding reasonable maintenance decision-making.关键词
Monte Carlo/管道裂纹/结构完整性评价/可靠性分析Key words
Monte Carlo/Pipeline crack/Structural integrity assessment/Reliability analysis引用本文复制引用
李星雨,杨玉锋,魏立新,张华兵,刘鹏,王力,张煜..Monte Carlo方法在管道裂纹缺陷评价中的应用[J].天然气与石油,2018,36(2):24-29,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助"油气长输管道及储运设施检验评价与安全保障技术研究与应用"(2016 YFC 0802104) （2016 YFC 0802104）
