中国电力2018，Vol.51Issue(5)：147-153,7.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706063
新疆电力供需预测及电能消纳有效途径研究
Research on Electricity Supply and Demand Forecasting and Efficient Path of Electricity Consumption in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Scientific and reasonable forecasting on the supply and demand of the whole society power consumption in Xinjiang cannot only provide a reference for power grid planning and operation,but also is of great significance to the policy making for power source construction and electricity consumption and to the sustainable development of regional power grid.Firstly,this paper forecasts the electricity demand of Xinjiang under several scenarios from 2017 to 2030,and it is concluded that the whole society electricity consumption in Xinjiang in 2030 will reach 282.3 billion kW·h to 383.9 billion kW·h.And then,an analysis is made on the prospective power supply in Xinjiang,and it is concluded that Xinjiang will face the problem of power supply significantly exceeding the demand during the period of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020).Finally,it is proposed that promoting the construction of outgoing channel of Xinjiang's electricity,building strong 750 kV backbone power grid and implementing the strategy of Xinjiang electrification are the main efficient paths for the solution to the power overproduction in Xinjiang.关键词
电力需求/电力供给/产能过剩/电化新疆/特高压建设Key words
electricity demand/electricity supply/excess production capacity/Xinjiang electrification/UHV construction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
郭森,崔永军,贾浩,赵名锐,王玉玮,赵会茹,任义生..新疆电力供需预测及电能消纳有效途径研究[J].中国电力,2018,51(5):147-153,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71373076) （71373076）
国网新疆电力公司项目(SGXJ0000BGJS1600358).This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71373076) and State Grid XinJiang Electric Power Company Project (No.SGXJ0000BGJS1600358). （SGXJ0000BGJS1600358）
