中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(4)：68-77,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20180105
中国电力部门中长期低碳发展路径研究
Study on medium and long-term low-carbon development pathway of China's power sector
摘要
Abstract
The power sector is one of the major sources of China's CO2 emissions,and the low-carbon transition in the power sector is crucial to China's long-term low-carbon development strategy.This paper builds a bottom-up model of energy system PECE-2017 which includes power modules.The module determines the power demand of the terminal sector according to the socio-economic drivers,introduces the power load curve to determine the power supply,and sets two scenarios-the business as usual scenario and the low-carbon scenario for future power development.This paper analyzes the low-carbon transition of the power sector and its important role and contribution to China's realization of medium and long-term low-carbon development from the perspectives of supply and demand structure,technology demand,cost and investment.The research shows that:First,the demand of China's power will continue to grow in the future,and the proportion in the terminal energy consumption will continue to rise.In the low-carbon scenario,the electricity demand in 2050 will reach 11 486 900 million kW · h,125％ higher than that in 2013 and the electrification rate will increase to 34％.In the structure of electricity demand,the proportion of industry and construction will drop while the proportion of transportation sector will increase.Second,the power structure is gradually low carbon.Coal and electricity will be phased out;the installed capacity of wind power and solar power have risen sharply,accounting for more than 30％ of installed capacity in 2050;and deployment and promotion of CCS technology after 2030 will reach 490 million kW by 2050.Third,under the low-carbon scenario,the power sector will further accelerate its decarbonization after the carbon emissions peak in 2020.By 2050,power sector emissions can be controlled within 400 million tons,6 150 million tons of emissions relative to the baseline scenario,accounting for 45％ of the total emission reduction contribution to China's low-carbon transition.Fourthly,the investment demand supporting low-carbon transition in the power sector accounted for a reasonable percentage of GDP.From 2030 to 2050,the investment demand of the power sector accounted for 0.77％ of the GDP;the investment structure of the power sector showed a noticeably low-carbon trend,with the majority of investment will be used for non-fossil energy power generation.关键词
电力部门/自下而上模型/碳排放/减排潜力/减排成本Key words
electricity sector/bottom-up models/carbon emissions/emission reductions/emission reduction cost分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张小丽,刘俊伶,王克,崔学勤,邹骥..中国电力部门中长期低碳发展路径研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(4):68-77,10.基金项目
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“基于全球碳预算公平分配的主要国家减排目标评估”(批准号:17XNA014). （中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）
